Lets start with the frontlines right away, big news has been comming in, the town of Dobropillia has fallen to the Russians or liberated as the Russians like to claim. This is big news and means that just 2 cities remain before Russia has taken all of Donbass region and those 2 cities are Kramatorsk and Slavjansk and the rumours from the front line is that Russia has already taken most of the villages around thoese 2 places so they can start a cauldrun in those 2 places like they like to do before taking a place, now even if they have already started taking most of the villages around Kramatorsk and Slavjansk then there is still several villages and small places left for Russia to capture and im pretty sure Ukraine will do some counter offensive in those villages but if they will do any serious damage to the Russian campaign remains to be seen. Lately there has been mentioned an Ukrainian counter offensive operation called vivaldi but the succes of it was very short lived, it managed to capture a village or two and push back the russians but only to retreat again after a Russian counter offensive of their own, despite claims of high Russians casualties in those Vivaldi attacks then they didnt manage to claim any territyory permenantly cause all they took had to be conceeded again after a day or two.

There is also a cauldrun or perhaps a semi cauldrun in the area of Orekhov, it looks like it will fall soon to the russians soon but Ukraine is keeping up at least 1 supplyroad into Orekhov which means the soldiers fighting there still have fresh supplies and food and so on so that they can keep fighting, even if the rumour is that it is expensive in terms of manpower to fight while in a semi circle. Orekhov is important cause it prevents the Russians to start the assault of the big city of Zaporochye it self, it cannot be done before Orekhov is taken and that is what the Russians are trying to do. The city of Zaporochye will take alot of manpower to take and also to defend, I dunno how hard Ukraine will fight for the city it self cause it can be difficult to hold such a place with sectors and sectors of places that needs to be hold. I dont think you can cut of supplies to such a big city since drones will fly in in mass to support troops inside even if the city will be surrounded by the Russians, Its been puzzle for me on how the Russians magate to create these cauldruns so effortlessly but i dont think the Ukrainians can afford to lalow that to happen to a big city like Zaporochye, cause the picture is the same every time Russian manage to create a cauldrun then they take the place after a while, this has been true over and over again and i really dont understand why Ukraine dosent do any more to prevent this from happening.

Perhaps it all comes down to manpower and here we are told lately that ukraine is loosing almost 30.000 a month, dead and wounded, thats a high number and confirms that Russian is truly making this a war of attrition, they take it more slowly on taking the places they surround but in return they make it expensive for the Ukrainians to defend it, take for instance near the Khrakov region, here Russian has manage to create a cauldrun around a place with at least 2000 Ukrainian forces, but after a while the rumour was that the reason why it was taking so long for the Russians to clear was that it wasent just 2000 troops, it was 5000 troops that was capture in a cauldrun and refusing to surrender, and this isent the only cauldrun, at some point Russia has 4 cauldruns active in the last few week with several thoussands of Ukrainian soldiers trapt inside of them, now its down to 2, the big one in the Khrakov region and then Orekhov, but orekhov has manage to keep 1 supply road open still so its not a complete cauldrun the the rest where.

There has been alot of talk that Russia is also loosing alot of soldiers, the west claims that Russia is loosing more then the Ukrainians but I find that hard to believe, Firstly Russia hasent called up any new troops and even if the west claims that Russia is about too then we havent heard anything from Russia confirming this, Russia recruits around 20.000 a month from volunteers and this has been going on for quite a while, that 120.000 in 6 month, if the Russians casualties where high as claimed then Russia would be forced to recruit more soldiers to maintain the big superiority in numbers in the battlefront and in total. Russia has a 3 to 1 number advantage near the battlefront, if they had a 5 to 1 they could swarm the Ukrainians soldiers and break the Ukrainians lines easily but with 3/1 they cant, they have to do it was they are doiung it now with cauldruns and slowly capturing every village settlement around the cities they want to take.

Ukraine claims it wants to recruit 40.000 so that it can both replace and also expand the strengh of the Ukrainian army but recruiting 40.000 a month is easy to say but to do is something completely different, Ukraine are not getting volunteers like Russia, in fact they have to drag people from bars and cafe’s and other public places into the army with vans and other big cars to carry people around in, in some places the people are so angry they flip the vans and cars of the recruitment people and thus avoit beeing recruitet and also often people use corruption to avoid being take to the front, this often makes the recruiters rich cause they get money from people who dosent wanna go to the frontlines. But recruiting 40.000 in a month is impossible I will claim, unless they start recruiting the under 25 year old who so far has been protected from the war cause they are the future of the Ukrainian people, normaly 18 is the recruitment age but in Ukraine it is 25, and Zelenskyy wount change that is the rumour.

The war is going on in many fronts, not only on the battlefrontlines, but also with drones and here Ukraine are doing alot better, the many drones that they get from Europa and even africa are a big help and its not unusual that Ukraine sends 2000 drones to attack a place in one day, thats a bigger number than what Russia is doing, not that Russia cant do it but so far they are sending 500-1000 a day. and for now Russia is happy with that number.

If we move away from the skies abit then Russia is doing well in the naval battle, Russia has blockaded Odessa and prevents any ships from entering or leaving Odessa, this happend because Ukraine startet attack Russian civilian ships transporting wheat to the world marked, because of these attacks Russia removed the deal with free transport for Ukraines civilian ships with wheat to the world market and now both countries cant send wheat to the world via the blacksea, its ofc worse for Ukraonme who got alot of weapons into ukraine via ports from Rumania and Bulgaria, around 11 transport ships have been sunk by Russia in the blacksea since the blockade of Odessa, all thanks to Zelenskyy’s silly idea to attack the civilians ships in the black sea, expanding and escalating the war in the area to the great disadvantages of Ukraine who really needs those material and supplies they used to get into Ukaine cause its the fastest way to get it in, sending it via rialroad takes alot longer time to get that amount of material into the country. Besides Russia is also attacking the railroads and especially the driver train are being targeted, what even worse for ukraine is that the train system is different than in the EU, they use russian standards for the trac distance so any normal train from the EU cant work in Ukraine.

I will be back when there are more news from the war, there is alot of talk about a peace talks soon to be held but I dont expect much to come from it, Zelenskyy holds an extreme positioning and rumour even is that the Azov Brigae people will kill him if he makes a peace deal, if true this prevents any deal that dosent include the surrender of Russia which will never happend. Some say that Russia has positioned them selves exstremely now as well, demanding the surrender of ukraine now as a starting position but if this rumour is true we will see in the comming negotiations. Russia has so far said that the SMO, the special military operation has the goal to take the donbass area and if that is true then they are very close in completing that goal, thus it should be easy to make a peace deal if only Kramatorsk and Slavjansk is what russia demands to end the war, but i dount its that simple, Russia wants to protect the russians speaking people in Ukraine as well and want a peace deal and not a freeze, Zelenskyy wants a freeze so it will be like north and south korea, a never ending war, but Russia isent interested in that, it wants an end to the war.

Keep the flame for truth burning and remember your Seatbelts! Stay Safe! No fate…