Been a while since my last update so lets get going. We start with the frontlines in Kostjantynivka where the word is that Russia is close to capturing the hole area, maybe days or maybe a week or so. We have to discuss about how slow things have been going, Ukraine are saying that it has been their best month of late and many western media are hoping that this is a turning point in the war and that Ukraine will start winning more ground as well as holding strong defensively, but the truth is abit more complex, yes its been going slow but acording to russian sources then there has been less activity on the frontlines because of the soft ground which makes its harder to conduct operations, this soft ground came because of the lap between the winter and the spring where the ice melted away and soften the ground and the soil levels in ukraine is some of the deepest which also makes it some of the best soil for growing stuff on but at the same time makes the ground soft for heavy vehicles and machines to get around without getting stuck. So the activity has beel less on the frontlines but Ukraine has taken this as a win even if they dont actually win any territory, then they still are proclaiming a win.

If we move further north to Sumi region then Russia has started taking many smaller villages indicating that a front here is opening up, the rumour is that they want to take some of sumi and the city of Sumi it self in order to push the Ukrainian drone operators further away since they operate in the northern Ukraine, at least this is what the russian rumour is. Russia has also started taking villages in the Krakhov region in the nort and again we will maybe see another front opening up for Russia and Ukraine, but its uncertain that it will start any time soon cause the focus is still Kostjantynivka before they will start looking at Kramatorsk as one of the last cities in the Donbass region.

If we move to the south then the picture is the same, Russia is creeping in on Zaporochya it self but still has to capture Orekhov first which they have started doing with attacks from multiple angles, there are still a few villages before all of Orekhov can be surrounded but that is the game plan for Russia. In regards with eastern Zaporochye where we heard of a minor counter-offensive succes from Ukraine a while ago has goon silent, its safe to asume that Russia has plugged the hole and are on the offense again since Ukraine is not taking anymore about it, but news has been slow from Russian sources because of the focus on the Iran war which I will try and stay out of since it all over the media, its also hard for me to position my self since i neither like the Iranian government nor do i like the agression from the USA, on the one hand I dont wanna defend the upper ruling class in Iran but at the same time I think USA could have avoided a conflict but I wount go into that here.

We need to talk abit about drones since Russia now are sneing over 1000 drones, not daily but over maybe 2 days, instead of making one big attack on a regular basic Russia now makes multiple attacks every day with various amounts of drones in order to make it less predictable for ukraine that use to take 1 big attack and then could freely move around after that but now they wount know when the attacks will come nor how big they are. Ukraine are ofc also using alot of drones but not as many and there is also a big difference in how they use their drones, Ukraine uses the drones mostly on the frontlines targeting people and materiel there and then a few into Moscow to terrorize the city. Now Russia uses their drones mostly on the backlines, the supply roads and infrastructure while also ofc hitting factories and energy infrastructure and military equipment, they do also use drones at the front lines but not in the same mass as Ukraine who maily focuses their drones on the frontlines.

The Iranian war is putting less focus on ukraine in the media and because of the soft ground we are also hearing of less activity on the battlefront, but the Iranian war has also led to the critical low supply of Patriot missiles for the patriot missile defenses, now the patriot systems takes down alot of drones but not really any missiles since they are all mostly hypersonic so they cant hit them. USA has also depleted alot of their missiles stock in Iran but they still have a month worth of missiles maybe before they will run out of missiles to dump of Iran, but since Ukraine dosent get any of those missiles anyway then it dosent really matter for Ukraine, they lack patriot missiles in large quantities and ofc money and materiel from the West. Now with Orban loosing the election in Hungary it will be easier for the EU to create bit loans for Ukraine that will never be repaied back IMO.

To end this I wanna talk about the rumour of the big Russian offensive comming this summer, we have heard this many times before and every time it never happends, so what could be the reason for it to be right this time? well it is true that things are going lsowly atm and that it is because of the ground beeing very soft, but once summer hits the conditions for a larger offensive will be met, the russian are around 3/1 in soldiers at the front, but since ukrtaine is only defending then they can do with less manpower but it also means they cant really do any offensive or retake terriotry unless they gamble in an area which I dont think they will. But if Russia where to put their large reserves of over 100.000 men, 200.000 men even to use then the number at the frontlines will be like 5/1 and that means that the russians can overrun the ukrainian positions in the places their choses and the rumour is that they want to take the donbasss region for good. Once donbass is taken there is only 1 city left between the Russians forces and the road to Kiev and that wount be easy to defend, further more if Russia makes a serious front in Sumi and takes Sumi then they have a highway going all the way to Kiev and that again would be hard to defend for Ukraine so the positions right now are vital for Ukraine and thats why a summer offensive for Russia would come at a great timing if they can organize and minimize the effect of shells, drones and missiles on their positions.

Keep the flame for truth burning and remember your Seatbelts! Stay Safe! No fate…