So more information has come to light regarding the peace talks in Abu Dhabi, it seems to be true that Zelenskyy is firm on his stance about not conceeding any territory and that is where the talks are hitting a dead end, Zelenskyy has another demand which he seems very firm on and that is the Zaporochye nuclear power plant, he wants it under Ukrainian control again but Russia seems firm on holding it under their control but perhaps after a peace deal they will perhaps sell electricity to Ukraine via the ZNPP Zaporochye nuclear power plant. A short story about how Ukraine tried to recapture the Nuclear power plant was that after Russia had captured it, the west send in some inspectors to make sure the power plant was safe but at the same day as these inspectors was set to inspect the plant Ukraine attacked the power plant and tried to get it under control, the idea was that if it succeded then the international community would declare the Zaporochye nuclear power plant for a safe zone, meaning that Russia couldnt attack it again and that it was protected under international law, but the Ukrainian surprise attack failed and the ZNPP remained under Russian control but funny how that it is not declared for a safe zone after all, because after the fail of the attack the inspectors didnt show up right away and the whole plan fell apart. I dont believe that Russia will ever give the ZNPP back to Ukraine, that seems very unlikely, they have allready diverted the power from the plant towards the Russian territory but I suspect that Russia could be convinced of selling energy to Ukraine after a peacedeal has been agreed upon, if Ukraine would accept those conditions ofc, buying energy from Russia.

Now I want to adress the SMO abit and put into perspective what at’s stake for Ukraine and Russia, when Russia delcared the SMO (Special Military Operation) the goal was too capture 4 regions (and ofc keep Crimea), these regions are donbass which consist of Luhansk and Donetsk region, and then Zaporochye and ofc Kherson, these are the 4 regions that Russia wants to capture if things goes their way ofc, now Russia controls about 90-95% of Luhansk and around 75% of Donetsk and you might ask why is Ukraine so firm on keeping those area’s if they have almost already lost it, well it’s because they are good places to defend and once they fall Ukraine will have less defendable places to hold and therefor they are vital for Ukraine and Zelenskyy wont agree to hand them over. Now a small note is that in Luhansk and Donets there was a vote to join the Russia federation and because there are so many Russians speaking in the eastern Ukraine then the vote was a majority for joining Russia so for Russia it means alot and especially if they can get Ukraine to give it up so that would put those area’s firmly into their hands and would not be contestet in any future talks or conflict cause Russia will see them as a very important part of Russia.

Now lets get back to the peace talks abit, Russia are not happy that USA and Ukraine are talking about security guarenties between eachother even if USA is trying to make Ukraine give up Donbass for it, for Russia a Security guarentee by USA is a huge red flag, the whole conflict started because the West wanted to put Nato into Ukraine and that was a no go from Russia, a red line that they dont want to give in too, one of the reason is that even if Nato alliance is a defensive one in theory then in practise the missile defense installations for instance can be within a few hours turned into an offensive one because of how the missile structures are build, a small rework of them within a few hours can turn the defensive missiles positions into offensive ones and because moscow is so close to Ukraine then the missiles would easily reach Moscow and that is what they are afraid off, that is also why they dont want long distance missiles into Ukraine and that was also why Russia was making alot of noice to USA when they talked about sending tomahawks missiles to Ukraine, it’s again a big red flag they they consider existencial for their survival, so no Nato for Ukraine and no Security Guarentess from USA and no long range missiles, that’s the big demands from Russia. Now Russia has in the past said it was okay for Ukraine to join the EU, this has been said multiple times as they don’t regard it as a huge threat to Russia, but as the EU militarizes then the mood is changing from Russia, they havent outright said no to EU membership but the rumour is that Russia is starting to look negatively on that option as well but its not official yet.

The situation looks hopeless for Ukraine, their only chance is that the Russian economy falls because of the enormus pressure and if it fell apart then Ukraine and the west could win the war but atm the Economy is holding strong, Russia is the 4th or 5th largest economy in the world going past Japan recently and despite harsh sanctions then the Economy is holding strong, and if it would have problems then it is most likely that China would step in and help the Russians finacially since China is a superpower in regards to finance. So it looks grim for Ukraine, they have to win on the battlefield and that is not going well for them, they are lossing every place and in 2025 Ukraine had 0 succesfull offensive and did for the most part focus on defending and when you don’t have the power to go on offense and you only fokus on defending then you truly have lost the war, I fear that Ukraine has lost the war and this leaves them in a very bad negotiation position but one which Zlenskyy refuses to accept and therefor the battle has to continiou and if Russia takes the 4 regions and Zelenskyy refuse to accept defeat then Russia will increase their demands and walk all the way to Kiev and take Odessa too which is a city that Putin has talked very positive about and once if it goes under Russian control would leave Ukraine landlocked, no other coastel city and no way of trading on the world marked via ships like they have done in the past. This is what is waiting for Ukraine if they can’t agree on a peacedeal, Russia refuses ceasefire’s they demand a settlement of the conflict and one preferably includes the whole security framework with USA, EU and Ukraine so that no future war will break out, so no ceasefires that will result in a cold war and keep going for ever, Russia wants a settlement that will secure peace for a very long time and they are willing to go the distance to get it, even if they have to go all the way to Kiev and then win the war and then make the demands they are intitled too as winner of a war.

Keep the flame for truth burning and remember your Seatbelts! Stay Safe! No fate…