This is my first Ukraine update in a while, I have been watching Alexander Mercouris to try and get a sense of what is going on and most of my comments vil be with him as the source. I will not make daily post but perhaps a weekly or two weeks update cause I wanna avoid the negativity I had created last time out. NOW let me remind people I want peace but I make alot of critical post of the west because I saw only deluded news in western media, I still think its bad but not as much as before, the best thing we can do for Ukraine is to report honestly even if the leaders today dosent like it, anyway here we go.

After about 10 days or more of watching Mercouris I get a sense that Russia is pushing in most places and seens like they are the only ones with offensive operations along the conflict zone, in Chasov Yar the fighting is very hard, Ukraine have comittet som of its best forces to try and hold it but the fighting is very brutal.

Russia still have air superiority and their bombers are taking out fortifications with Fab bombs and the artillery is also firering more than the Ukraine. And when it comes to troops Ukraine are struggling with reserves were’as Russia have alot deeper pool to take from, has many reserves and could open more fronts if the want.

Ukraine did make a general call up of troops but from the 500.000 we heard they dreamt of, I think it ended just around 200.000 or under, which is still very needed but it is from the younger group who so far has been spared and they dont have many in that group left. It will also take some time, Russia have the luxery they can train their troops for 6 month while Ukraine at best gives them 3 month in europa somewhere, but sometimes even less time inside ukraine.

Ive followed this war like many others and I think the biggest mistakes from the west has been on several fronts, firstly I believe they thought that the Sanktions would destroy the russian economy, making them unable to conduct a war, this was also while they took Krakov and some of Kherson, but russia’s economy withheld the pressure both finacielly but also they startet to hold their grounds while the west for several month where deluded about the actual situation and that looked really bad at the time, General Mark milley tryed to tell people and several people like scott ritter and douglas macgregor also warned in late 2022 that it wasent going so well, and even jens stoltenberg the Nato General Sekretary warned people around Christmas in 2022 that things was going bad.

Then Russia had its first succesfull offensive in 2023 taking bakhmut (artyomovsk in russian) and then the Ukraine launched their summer offensive the 4th of june after 6. Month of preperation which was a disaster and after 4 month they had to stop after 90.000 dead or severly wounded which is alot and only manage to get less than 10 small villages. I think this showed another error from USA that when it comes to land battles that they are either out of touch with reality or they underestimated the Rusdians which also expose a gab between the combat room and the battlefield.

Now I think Dougles Macgregor said once that on sea and air there USA is supreme, they have the best airforce and best navy but that USA havent been in equal wars on the ground and perhaps therefor where not up to date on fighting on the ground and it showed in the planning and thinking and I will add that the whole way of fighting in a proxy war also made things harder cause you cant just send in troops officially without risking a world war and nukes and that creates alot of restrictions.

By enlarge then Metcouris says that most serious analytics says Russia is winning and I also belive this but Zelensky and the West including USA cant accept this which makes it impossible for a peace talk, the longer they wait the harder it is because Russia is improving its position in the war and also on the Negotiating table. Not to forget the world by enlarge also dont wanna be drawn into the conflict and also see peace as the best thing. I read in danish media several month ago a narrative which was something like- we must WIN PEACE before we risk Ukraine Loosing but sadly this great quote was overshadowed the next fay with the narrative: we cant let Russia win! Which they have all followed ever since.

Now one last remark, Zelensky is desperate and several leaders in the west also but Zelensky perhaps more so, he wants alot of cruice missiles and also targets far inside Russia, but again one of the reason that the west decides the tarhetd is because Zelenskyy wants to dragg morw countries into the war like they tried with Poland. Also I feel Zelenskyy wants to hit targets that will make Russia respond like the civillian targeting in belgorod but I think zelenskyy wants to Force Russia”s hands into an direct big offensive that his Ukraine may or may nok be better equip to deal with before Russia them selves finds a good opportunity for their late summer offensive or perhaps later, I feel this is what Zelenskyy wants, either exspan and risk world war or force Russia’s hand.

keep the flame for truth burning and remember your seatbelts! Stay Safe! No fate…